Home News Trader Peter Brandt sees Bitcoin crashing further after May’s 50% drop

Trader Peter Brandt sees Bitcoin crashing further after May’s 50% drop


Technical trading veteran and head of Factor LLC, 74-year-old Peter Brandt questioned the rise in the price of the first cryptocurrency in the short term. He is confident that we are seeing a “bounce of the dead cat” and not a change in trend.

The trader asked the “historians of Bitcoin” to name at least one precedent in the last decade when digital gold renewed its price high after falling by more than 50%.

One user gave two examples:

– the rebound in 2020, when Bitcoin broke through the $ 20,000 mark almost nine months after falling to $ 3800;

– the 2013 rally in which the price of digital gold rose 2450% eight months after bottoming out at $ 45.

However, Brandt dismissed these examples as in both cases it took the cryptocurrency additional time to recover to its former heights.

Will Brandt’s prediction be true?

The price of Bitcoin is quite unpredictable, but in the past, Peter Brandt has made very correct predictions. For example, he predicted that the price of Bitcoin would fall after reaching its all-time high in December 2017. In 2018, based on simple rules of technical analysis, he also predicted a decline in the price of Bitcoin quite accurately.

Moreover, in September 2020, Brandt announced that he had closed positions in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and also sold Bitcoins on the eve of the fall.

And in 2020, the trader explained that it became possible to reduce the price of an asset to zero.

Brandt noted that all this time he was convinced that there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will rise in price to $ 100,000 and a 50% chance that it will fall in price to zero. Since the Bitcoin rate fell, it has been betting to zero.

Some traders agreed with Brandt and called Bitcoin a sinking ship that “will drag all holders to the bottom with it”.

Anthony Pompliano, partner at Morgan Creek Digital, shares a different opinion. He believes that the decline in the value of the first cryptocurrency and other digital assets is caused by a lack of capital among investors. This happened due to the liquidity crisis in the stock market, the expert explained. He clarified that a similar situation happened with gold quotes in 2008.

Forecast error

Analyst Williy Woo suggested that the trader is trying to predict a further market crash based on how Bitcoin has responded to over 50% retracements in the past.

According to Woo, Brandt is taking the wrong approach. He noted that all corrections of this magnitude followed by long recovery periods began at the point when the price exceeded the fundamental value of the asset.

Willy Woo clarified that to assess the fundamental value, it is necessary to use the Stock-to-Flow model and the NVT indicator.

According to Woobull Charts, the NVT Price for Bitcoin is valued at $ 54,538. At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading at $ 37,000.

Thus, the analyst’s opinion contradicts the position of the head of the trading company Factor LLC, Peter Brandt.

Willy Woo noted that BTC’s bullish gains are still in force and that he expects the price of Bitcoin to reach levels above $ 100,000 per coin.

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