The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on Bitcoin (BTC) may have a negative impact on its price. The CEO and founder of Pantera Capital Dan Morehead stated this.
“After a temporary frenzy amid fears that China’s ban on mining will destroy the industry, and a heated debate about its environmental impact, we have entered a new bull market,” he wrote in a note to investors.
Morehead is convinced that the possible launch of an ETF is able to reverse an uptrend. “There is a saying on Wall Street, ‘Buy on rumors, sell on facts’. [It] definitely works in our space,” explained the CEO of Pantera Capital.
History repeated itself
He referred to two events in the past that triggered this exchange wisdom: the launch of Bitcoin futures on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the launch of Coinbase on the stock exchange. In the first case, digital gold subsequently fell in price by 83%. In the second – by 54%.
By the time derivatives were launched on the CME, Bitcoin had formed a peak. Prior to that, driven by the mantra “We’re going to the moon,” he showed an increase of 2440%, Morehead noted. History repeated itself with the direct listing of Coinbase. Earlier, the first cryptocurrency managed to rise in price by 822%, after which a bearish cycle began.
Morehead did not rule out the occurrence of a similar pattern in the case of Bitcoin ETFs. “Will someone please remind the day before the Bitcoin ETF officially launches? I might want to take some chips off the table,” the expert commented.
Optimism about the long-term prospects
Dan Morehead also expressed optimism about the medium- and long-term prospects of the first cryptocurrency. “Bear markets like the one that emerged in 2017 have become part of our ‘primordial’ past. In the future, they will be more moderate in nature. Unfortunately, there is no free lunch. The flip side of the coin will be the absence of a hundred-fold rally during the year,” he explained.
Recall that the driver of Bitcoin’s movement to new local highs is the expectation of a positive decision on the Bitcoin ETF. Previously, Bloomberg experts predicted SEC approval of the instrument by the end of October.
JPMorgan analysts cited the interest of institutions, the growing popularity of the Lightning Network micropayments, as well as the assurances of the US authorities about the lack of intentions to ban cryptocurrencies as the reasons for the digital gold rally.