SignalPlus head of Insights Augustine Fan noted that markets have already ruled out any chance of an outsized 50-basis-point cut.
Updated Aug 19, 2025, 1:54 p.m. Published Aug 19, 2025, 6:32 a.m.
What to know:
- Crypto markets saw $270 million in liquidations, primarily in ether and bitcoin longs, due to fading hopes of a September Fed rate cut.
- Traders are recalibrating risk ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with ETH’s implied volatility rising.
- Bitcoin and ether prices dipped, while XRP held firmer, reflecting broader market adjustments.
Crypto markets spent the past 24 hours unwinding bullish bets as $270 million in liquidations hit traders, led by ether (ETH) and bitcoin
longs.
The flush came alongside fading hopes of a September Fed rate cut, with Polymarket odds of “no cut” jumping from 12% to 26%. That shift left some investors recalibrating risk ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
Nick Forster, founder at Derive.xyz, called the move a reset of short-term positioning rather than a structural shift in a Monday note.
“It’s been a turbulent 24 hours in the crypto market, with over $270 million in liquidations, led by $170 million in ETH and $104 million in BTC,” he said.
“A vast majority (95%) of these were longs, triggered by moderate pullbacks of 3% for ETH and 2% for BTC. This flush comes as expectations for a Fed rate cut in September dropped sharply,” Forster said.
That macro repricing spilled into derivatives. ETH’s seven-day implied volatility rose to 73% from 68%, even as 30-day IV stayed steady, Derive’s data showed. The divergence suggests traders see turbulence in the coming sessions but aren’t yet bracing for a prolonged selloff.
Forster flagged a 21% probability of BTC hitting $100,000 before September’s close, up from 15%, while the chance of ETH correcting to $4,000 by month-end climbed to 60%.
SignalPlus head of Insights Augustine Fan noted that markets have already ruled out any chance of an outsized 50-basis-point cut.
“Any hopes of a 50bp cut at the September meeting were quickly dashed, with ~90% of a single cut being priced as of Friday’s close,” Fan said. “Focus will be on Jackson Hole later this week, but we are not looking for a lot of new dovish surprises given the inflation backdrop.”
That backdrop has weighed on majors. Bitcoin slipped to $115,036, its lowest in nearly two weeks, while Ethereum traded at $4,235. XRP held firmer at $3.02, trimming weekly gains to just 4% from a 9% high earlier.
Shaurya Malwa
Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis.
Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA.
He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN.
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What to know:
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- Long-term outlook remains supported by HBAR’s enterprise-grade infrastructure and partnerships, despite short-term volatility.