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BTC bull run has ‘at least 6 months to go’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

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BTC bull run has ‘at least 6 months to go’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week. Following a positive weekend, BTC/USD now confronts a more optimistic macro environment, as well as a slew of expert forecasts that October will be a game-changer.

They claim that Q4 will be unlike anything witnessed so far in the current Bitcoin bull run, and that there are still more than six months to prove it.

This October, markets are expecting a “turbulent ride”

Although stocks experienced a flat September, Bitcoin has already outperformed the macro pack in the first few days of the new month.

Despite the fact that the S&P 500 lost 5% in September, BTC/USD ended the month approximately $4,000 lower than it ended August.

The pair’s fortunes have firmly established a distinct tone since Oct. 1, and favourable headwinds for Bitcoin may likely persist, despite predictions for stocks to soar at the expense of the US dollar.

Over the weekend, CNBC reported Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, as stating, “Q4 2021 will certainly post a higher-than-average return”.

“Notwithstanding, investors will need to hold on tight throughout October’s normally turbulent ride, which witnessed 36% greater volatility than the previous 11 months’ average”.

The vote on the US infrastructure plan, which had been scheduled for last week, has now been postponed until October 31 at the earliest.

According to the U.S. dollar currency index, the dollar is at its highest level in over a year (DXY). Traders are keeping an eye on a recent reversal, which has historically been a bullish trigger for Bitcoin.

A DXY decline, according to renowned Twitter trader Crypto Ed, may take months, not weeks.

DXY 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

$50,000, but not yet

Bitcoin is definitely gearing up an attack on the all-important $50,000 level, after cutting $49,000 over the weekend, but not yet.

Despite bullish impulses, the most recent move to the higher on Sunday was met with a strong rejection and an almost $2,000 loss.

However, many disregarded this as a negative warning, claiming that any price dip in Bitcoin would be transitory.

Michael van de Poppe is one of them, as he reiterated his recent idea of a brief pullback followed by a new bullish breakthrough.

Pentoshi, a fellow trader, compared the scenario to last year’s Q4 activity, when the target was $20,000 rather than $64,500.

“I’m not a fan of short time periods”, In accompanying Twitter remarks, he stated, “I worry about the macro market structure”.

BTC/USD likewise put up a strong weekly finish of $48,234 — cancelling out its previous two weeks’ movement altogether.

New hash rate all-time highs trickle in

You are never certain, but according to certain estimations, the Bitcoin hash rate has already surpassed previous all-time highs.

Data sources reveal that the basic metric has entirely compensated for the turmoil, less than five months after China triggered a major exodus of miners and equipment due to a regulatory crackdown.

As well, the hash rate may have just surpassed 200 exahashes per second (EH/s). A whole 32 EH/s faster than its previous high.

Measuring hash rate is challenging since the actual amount of mining power committed to Bitcoin is impossible to determine. Therefore any representation is simply an estimate.

While other sites report different numbers — on Oct. 2, CoinWarz reported 201 EH/s, while MiningPoolStats now has just 138 EH/s — the general increase is undeniable.

Bitcoin network fundamentals remain firmly in “up only” mode, indicating miners’ long-term belief in profitability.

“Earlier this year, China expelled over 90% of the country’s bitcoin miners. As a result, the hash rate dropped by around half,” Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano said of the statistics.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate chart. Source: Blockchain

Halfway through?

It’s no secret that some of Bitcoin’s most well-known experts are predicting a stellar Q4 performance for the cryptocurrency.

The “worst-case scenario” for Bitcoin has come true two months in a row for PlanB, the inventor of the stock-to-flow model family.

His current floor projections are $63,000 by the end of Oct and $98,000 by the end of Nov.

However, when he zooms out, the outlook for Bitcoin bulls becomes even more favourable, he claims. PlanB’s latest stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) report revealed price behaviour to be about halfway through its bull cycle. Indicating the possibility of significant gains.

“In my opinion, we are in the middle, with no signs of weakness (red) yet. He remarked on the chart, “Note colour overlay is not months to halving but an on-chain signal”.

Bitcoin S2FX chart as of Oct. 3. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

Bitcoin still has some catching up to do with daily stock-to-flow predictions. With the market price diverging by record amounts in recent months.

BTC/USD is expected to trade at slightly over $100,000 on Monday, according to the S2F Multiple tracking service.

Pricing in a Bitcoin ETF

The SEC has “kicked the can” on a traditional product decision until at least November, so a futures-based ETF is likely to be approved first.

The market has been pricing in the historic event for some time. Nonetheless, a decision may still upend sentiment and, with it, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s present state of play (GTBC).

Despite recent price movements, the fund’s discount to the market price has remained substantial, at around 14%.

Grayscale premium chart. Source: Bybt

Grayscale has stated that it plans to convert its flagship crypto funds to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as soon as conditions permit. Despite statistics indicating that business is booming.

Last week, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that “GBTC absolutely dominates in volume versus bitcoin fund rivals trading 10x more in $ terms than any other”.

Bitcoin funds trading turnover comparison. Source: Eric Balchunas/ Twitter
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