Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to reach the November closing price promised by one of its most famous models, but its designer is not given up.
PlanB said on Twitter on December 1 that he would give his floor model another month to prove itself.
BTC floor model on probation
BTC/USD should have finished November around $98,000 in a “worst-case scenario,” but a number of variables cooperated to deliver a significantly lower monthly closure.
The pair fell short of its objective at around $57,000, marking the first time PlanB‘s floor model has failed in Bitcoin’s history.
He wrote, “Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct)”.
“No model is perfect, but this is a major flop, the first in ten years!” Is there a difference between being an outlier and being a black swan? Floor model will get another month.”
Most recently, the floor model successfully forecasted the monthly closures for August, September, and October, bolstering chances for a six-figure entry in December.
PlanB added that his other BTC price predicting models remain unchanged as more traders and analysts realise that the bull market in 2021 may take longer than expected to reach its top.
Popular stock-to-flow-based technologies are among them, with an average price of at least $100,000 expected between now and 2024. Bitcoin is likely to reach a six-figure price by the end of the year, according to market expectations.
Unlucky bull timing?
The end of November came at a time when Bitcoin was facing new downward pressure.
Concerns about the coronavirus have been compounded by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s admission that inflation will not be “transitory”.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reported that sentiment has shifted from “neutral” to “fear”.
Meanwhile, PlanB’s floor model has its work cut out for it if it wants to keep its status as a reliable price forecaster. It anticipates a BTC/USD price of $135,000 in only four weeks.